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Noise about Noise: The Good Coach/Bad Coach Fallacy
It is 4th and inches from the 50 yard line. The defense lines up with nine in the box, with a cornerback covering the loan wide receiver and the safety playing a bit closer than usual. The quarterback...
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Does the Vice President’s Vote Matter?
Growing up, I remember my parents telling me about the vice president’s role in the Senate. As president of the Senate, the VP only casts a vote in the event of a 50-50 tie among the senators. Thus,...
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Panetta’s Second-Rate Understanding of Defense Spending
Leon Panetta, the outgoing U.S. Secretary of Defense, made an interesting claim during his exit interview. Automatic defense budget cuts will take place on March 1 unless Congress reworks the...
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Theory, Assumptions, and a God-Awful Final Jeopardy
In case you missed it, last night’s Final Jeopardy was flat terrible. This was the semifinal game in the teen tournament; only the top (strictly positive) scorer advanced to the next round, and no one...
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Preemptive War on the Walking Dead
The Walking Dead is cable’s most successful TV show, ever. I’m writing this after “Home,” and I’m going to assume you know what is going on by and large. Here’s what’s important. As far as we care,...
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Wheel of Fortune’s Most Frequent Bonus Round Letters
C M D A? Try H G D O. I have been watching Wheel of Fortune for more than 20 years now–my parents even tell me that the game taught me how to read. And all the while I have unquestionably thought that...
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Negotiating with Iran: Credible Commitment Problems?
The United States, the rest of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, Germany, and Iran are in Kazakhstan this week, negotiating over the Iranian nuclear program. The West wants...
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A Great Post-Treatment Bias Example
Not too long ago, I wrote a post about the most frequent letters on Wheel of Fortune’s bonus round. H G D O ends up winning. But just because those are the most frequent letters doesn’t mean they are...
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World Baseball Classic: Perverse Incentive Alert
Apparently the World Baseball Classic will compensate Major League Baseball teams if an injured WBC player misses 30 days or more of the regular season. But if the player misses less than that? No...
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Can We Stop Caring about MOOC Completion Rates?
MOOCs have been in the news a lot recently, though most of the attention has gone toward their completion rates. At first glance, the data do not look good. It is hard to accurately measure completion...
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Can Free MOOCs Be Profitable?
It’s becoming a well known fact that MOOCs are popular but not profitable. Universities are willing to suck up the costs as a means of advertising. Charging would deter enrollment and cancel out that...
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Math Can’t Fix This: Doritos Locos Tacos Doritos Ad Infinitum Taste Nothing...
Well, it finally happened. After a year of resistance, I finally had a Doritos Locos Taco over the weekend. It pains me to say this, but they are delicious. I actually look forward to trying Doritos...
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Can Premium MOOCs Find an Audience?
This is part of an ongoing series on the profitability of MOOCs. Click below for the other entries. Part 1: Can Free MOOCs Be Profitable? Part 2: Can Premium MOOCs Find an Audience? Part 3: Proven...
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Optimal Flopping: The Game Theory of Foul Fakery
I was watching the NBA Finals last night. While the series has been good, watching professional basketball requires a certain tolerance for flopping–i.e., players pretending like they got hit by a...
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How to Use American Airlines’“Hold Tickets” Option for Cheap Airfare
I was booking plan tickets for an upcoming trip when I discovered this hack. If you book on American Airlines’ website, it gives you the option to hold your tickets at the current price for 24 hours....
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How to Calculate Your Total Time Listening to Your iTunes/iPhone/iPod
A couple of days ago, I wondered what percentage of my life I listen to music. Fortunately, I figured out exactly how to calculate it. I have been using iTunes since I got my first iPod for my 18th...
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Why Do Prisoners Cooperate in the Prisoner’s Dilemma?
According to a new study by Menusch Khadjavi and Andreas Lange, prisoners cooperate more frequently in prisoner’s dilemmas than college students. Here’s the abstract from their article “Prisoners and...
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Game Theory 101: The Complete Textbook Update
Two years ago today, I published the first incarnation of Game Theory 101: The Complete Textbook. (It was incomplete back then, heh.) Every summer, I like to go through it and make changes where I can....
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